Tuesday, 3 March 2015

Further Harlequin Weapon Math - Best option vs Invisibility

Hi guys,

it was pointed out to me on another blog that while the math was helpful, that I hadn't accounted for the fact that the Embrace hit automatically and as a result was much better against targets with Invisibility.

I wanted to make sure I was giving the full information and so I figured I'd do additional math on the effectiveness of the weapons vs a unit with Invisibility (For now I've stayed with MEQ but I believe this would also work for Eldar Jetbikes as they're T4 3+ save?)

Once I've done the rest of the math I'll put up results for the various weapons against Marine Bikes with Invisibility and anything else that might be requested in the comments.

Ok!

So your unit of 5 Harlequins somehow gets into contact with a unit of Eldar Jetbikes with Invis on them, we'll assume all 5 hit home simply because the casualties would be the same regardless.

On the Charge the weapons match up like this:

Weapon
Kills
Efficiency
Caress
.67
0.029
Kiss
.22
0.011
Embrace
.67
0.500
TM with Caress
.83
0.019
TM with Kiss
.25
0.006
TM with Power Sword
.42
0.008
TM with Storied Sword
.56
0.009

So unless there are Invulnerable saves, the Caress and the Embrace are pretty much equal, with the Embrace being slightly better as it's cheaper, however there is something to be said for hitting at I10 and then 6, and with Invulnerable saves it weights more heavily towards the Embrace. I don't know how to model this though, how many Invulns are you likely to get in a Deathstar type unit like that?
What sort of invulns?

My concern is primarily about the second round of combat, as you've now hit home with your embraces and gain no further benefit, whereas each roll of 6 to hit with the caress is a AP2 Instant Death.

The second round of combat (or if you're charged) works out as:

Weapon
Kills
Efficiency
Caress
.50
0.022
Kiss
.18
0.009
Embrace
.06
0.003
TM with Caress
.67
0.017
TM with Kiss
.19
0.005
TM with Power Sword
.89
0.018
TM with Storied Sword
.33
0.006

So putting those together this is how the combats average out when both units are charging a unit of Invisible Jetbikes:

Loadout
Kills
2 Kiss, 2 Caress, TM with Caress
2.61
4 Embraces, TM with Caress
3.51

And this is if the unit is charged by the Jetbikes or is in a subsequent round of combat:

Loadout
Kills
2 Kiss, 2 Caress, TM with Caress
2.02
4 Embraces, TM with Caress
0.89

Across two rounds of combat:

Loadout
Kills
2 Kiss, 2 Caress, TM with Caress
4.63
4 Embraces, TM with Caress
4.40


If anyone has any feedback regards the loadout of a unit of jetbikes so I can see what else comes into it I'm happy to incorporate that, but for now I still hold out that a mix of Kiss and Caress is a very good option for the Harlequins, especially given that ideally they'll be spending two rounds of combat, then using hit and run to get out of there and charge again.

Embrace does have more punch on the charge however and that difference of 0.9 casualties on the charge could mean 1 less model hitting you back so I can definitely see the value there, I would just prefer something that can still cause damage if charged and/or in subsequent rounds.

If the target is T5, it swings back in the favour of the Caress.

*Updated with correction from Charlie*

Any questions or comments around further things I need to take into account guys?

What other units should I be taking into account?

Thanks for reading,

Rich